Breakeven win rate calculator

Your breakeven win rate is the share of trades you must win so that wins pay for losses and costs. Without costs it is 1 ÷ (1 + R:R): 50% at 1R, 33.3% at 2R. Costs push it up: at 2R with costs of 0.1R per trade you need about 36.7%.

Breakeven win rate: 36.67%

How it is calculated

Expected R per trade = p × R:R − (1 − p) × 1 − costs
Set it to zero: p = (1 + costs) ÷ (1 + R:R)

Worked example

At 2R with 0.1R costs: p = 1.1 ÷ 3 = 36.7%. If you risk 1,000 per trade and pay 100 in charges, your costs are 0.1R.

Educational maths only. Not investment advice.

Questions

How do I find my costs in R?

Divide your average charges per round trip by your average risk per trade. A trading journal that records charges per trade makes this easy.

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Breakeven win rate calculator