Expectancy calculator

Expectancy is the average amount a strategy makes or loses per trade over many trades: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. With a 40% win rate, an average win of 3,000 and an average loss of 1,500, expectancy is 1,200 − 900 = +300 per trade, or +0.2R.

Expectancy per trade: 300
Expectancy in R: 0.2
Over 100 trades: 30,000

How it is calculated

Expectancy = p × average win − (1 − p) × average loss
In R = expectancy ÷ average loss

Worked example

0.4 × 3,000 − 0.6 × 1,500 = 1,200 − 900 = +300 per trade. Over 100 similar trades that is about +30,000, before variance.

Educational maths only. Not investment advice.

Questions

How many trades do I need for a reliable number?

More is better. Small samples swing a lot. Many journals wait for at least 30 trades before reading expectancy, and treat it as a rough guide even then.

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Expectancy calculator